Even Trump and Powell are holding hands about it!

I know—it’s been a minute (or a decade and change), but the Portland metro area is officially back in buyer’s market territory. It only took 13 years, 10 months, and a few bruised egos in the bond market. But here we are, and opportunity is knocking—especially for savvy buyers and sharp-eyed investors.

Let’s rewind the tape—but skip past the whole 2008–2009 Great Recession mess. I’ll spare you the financial trauma flashbacks and just say this: I’m a big fan of The Big Short (Carell, Bale, Gosling, Pitt = brilliant). If you’ve seen it, you know how the unchecked greed of mortgage lenders, credit rating agencies, and investment banks nearly turned the U.S. into a sequel to the Dust Bowl. If you haven’t seen it… watch it. Then thank your lucky stars you didn’t buy a condo in Miami in 2006.

Now, fast forward to late 2010 and early 2011, when the market was no longer in total freefall, but still heavily favoring buyers—especially here in Portland. Back then, three major forces kept buyers firmly in the driver’s seat:

1. Unemployment Was Still High: Oregon’s unemployment rate hovered around 10%, much higher than the national average at the time. In Portland, jobs were slowly returning, but the damage from the recession was still visible. Confidence was low. People weren’t exactly rushing out to bid on houses when they weren’t sure whether their job—or their neighbor’s job—would be there next month.

2. The Market Was Flooded with Inventory: In July of 2010, the Portland Metro area sat on a whopping 10.8 months of available housing inventory. There were way too many homes on the market—many of them foreclosures, short sales, or bank-owned properties (REOs). Portland, like many metro areas, had more houses than buyers. And we all know what happens when supply outweighs demand—prices drop. That gave buyers plenty of leverage and options.

3. The Stimulus Sugar Rush Was Over: In 2009 and 2010, the federal government offered tax credits to first-time homebuyers, which temporarily juiced demand (housing inventory then was at an all time high of 19.2 months in January of 2009). But once those federal credits expired, the adrenaline wore off and buyers retreated, leaving a softer, slower market behind.

Flash to Present Day: A Different Kind of Buyer’s Market

Now here we are in 2025, and we’re back in a buyer’s market—but for completely different reasons.

Unemployment? Still relatively low. According to the Bureau of Labor Statistics, it’s just 4.1%, even if the BLS chief was recently relieved of duty for… let's just say, inconveniently accurate data. So yes—people have jobs. But they’re not necessarily in a hurry to buy homes, and that’s key.

Inventory? It’s rising, but it’s not overflowing like it was back in 2010. And yet, we’re still seeing price cuts, longer days on market, and more seller concessions.

Stimulus? Nope. Nothing new there either. No tax credits. No grants. No government-backed down payment magic. First-time buyers are basically on their own.

So why are we in a buyer’s market?

1. Mortgage Rates Are Creating a Gridlock: Let’s start with the obvious elephant in the escrow room: interest rates. After enjoying years of historically low mortgage rates (3% felt like a gift from the real estate gods), we’re now living in the 6%+ world. That shift changed everything.

Most current homeowners are sitting on mortgage rates that feel too good to give up.

That “rate lock” effect is reducing the number of move-up buyers. Fewer people are listing homes. Fewer are shopping. Demand is lighter, and the buyers who are active? They have leverage.

2. Layoffs Are Starting to Hit Close to Home: And by “home,” I mean Intel and Nike—two of the biggest employers in the Portland metro.

• In July 2025, Intel laid off 2,400 employees in Oregon, on top of 1,300 from late 2024. [Source: OPB]
• Nike, meanwhile, cut 740 jobs at its Beaverton HQ during a $2 billion restructuring effort. About 40% of those cuts hit senior or high-level roles.

The ripple effects? Already showing up in places like the West Hills, where 52% (and rising) of homes priced between $1.2M and $2M have dropped their list prices by $100,000 or more. And what happens at the top of the market doesn’t stay there. Although we haven’t seen it yet, this will flow downstream into middle-income neighborhoods.

Tech professionals with highly specialized skill sets may need to relocate for work, and when that happens in volume, you get forced selling—and more downward pressure on prices.

3. Cautious Consumer Sentiment: This might be the biggest wildcard of them all.

Let’s face it: Here in Portland—where political sentiment often skews progressive—there’s a tendency to stay on the sidelines and wait things out. The average buyer isn’t holding back because they’re unemployed; they’re holding back because they don’t trust the economy, don’t trust the market, and don’t trust that now is the right time to jump.

Specific to here in the blue Portland Metro, confidence in the economy is shaky. The new administration has cracked a bunch of economic eggs in its kitchen, and all democrats (and some Republicans) are standing around wondering if this is the start of a beautiful soufflé or just a sticky mess that someone’s going to have to mop up later.

In short, people are nervous—and nervous buyers don’t make aggressive offers.

4. The Toilet Paper Principle: Portland’s housing market right now is a bit like Costco during the early days of COVID. One person panics and buys 10 cases of toilet paper, and suddenly their neighbor feels the need to buy 15.

Today? The same herd mentality is happening with home pricing.

A seller drops their price by $10,000… and their neighbor responds by dropping their price by $15,000. You don’t want to be the most expensive house on the block in a slowing market. And once that pattern starts, it spreads. Fast.

The result? Homes sitting longer. Prices softening. Buyers getting bolder.

In Summary:

This isn’t a rerun of 2008. There’s no wave of foreclosures. No subprime meltdown. No credit crunch. This is a new kind of buyer’s market—one driven by affordability ceilings, buyer hesitation, and a shift in power dynamics. And while it’s not as dramatic as the crash-era downturn, it offers a clear opening for buyers who know how to negotiate and aren’t afraid to be patient.

And for sellers?

If you have to sell in a buyer’s market, you’re not “losing”—you’re trading. Any concession you make when selling your current home is likely one you’ll benefit from when buying your next one. It’s just a different game right now. And if you understand the rules, you can play it to your advantage.

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