Sales Volume has hit the level of 2008/09.
But have we hit bottom?

The 2025 Sales Volume Slump in on par with what we saw in 2008 and 2009.  Is it finally over?  Dig to the batter's box and read why this time around it's MUCH MUCH different.  And learn what you can do as a buyer and a seller in this market.

Much of the talk over the last 3 years has been about mortgage rates, home prices, and affordability. One major statistic has been overlooked: sales volume.

Nationally, in the Western Region of the U.S., and even here in the Portland Metro, the number of existing homes sold hasn’t been this low since Katy Perry and Snoop Dogg topped the charts with California Gurls — 15 years ago!

Anecdotally, we all know the reasons:

  • Home sellers feel “rate locked.” Nearly 3 out of 4 homeowners have a rate at or below 5% on their mortgage.
  • Per Redfin, as of August 2025, the average mortgage payment in the U.S. was $2,631 per month. In the summer of 2020 — during the pandemic — it was $1,388. That’s nearly double in just 5 years.
  • Over the last 3 years, because there’s been an unusually low number of sellers, buyers had slim pickings. Thanks to the laws of supply and demand, even with low sales volume, prices kept climbing.

So, when it comes to low sales volume — have we reached the trough?

This morning, I dragged myself away from spreadsheets and charts (okay, I made coffee first) to take a hard look at Existing Home Sales numbers going back to 1980. And yes, those numbers whispered some sweet — and slightly snarky — insights about what’s happening in the housing market nationwide. Let’s unpack what they might mean for Portland.


As you can see, the only other time in the last 60 years we’ve seen such a sharp drop in sales was the period following the 2006 peak — when even one-armed, stated-asset, stated-income, no-credit-check professional accordion players were getting mortgages — all the way to the 2008–09 housing collapse.

We all know why that collapse happened: it was a credit crisis. Irresponsible banks were handing out irresponsible loans to people who shouldn’t have had mortgages in the first place.

So why a slowdown now? Affordability. Mortgage rates were artificially low during the Covid crisis. Buyers who normally wouldn’t have been able to purchase until years later jumped in early because their monthly payment was at or below what they were paying in rent. In effect, the pandemic pulled forward demand that we would have otherwise seen between 2023–2025. With that surge, demand outpaced supply and drove up prices.

Will sales volume pick back up? If you look back to around 2010 and compare it to where we are today, the chart suggests we could see recovery by 2026.

Here’s why: in my last article I explained (I won’t rehash it all here) that even with a few expected Federal Funds rate cuts, I don’t expect mortgage rates to drop much in the next 6–9 months.

The only thing that can spark a real surge in sales volume is lower monthly payments. If rates aren’t coming down significantly, the other variable in the equation is price.

And we’re already seeing it around the country — even more so here in Portland. Homes are sitting longer. Buyers are regaining leverage in negotiations. Sellers are getting anxious. And unemployment is starting to creep into the conversation. A few months back, I forecasted that by summer 2026, conditions could line up for home prices to drop about 10% nationally compared to summer 2025. Even if mortgage rates don’t fall, that makes homes 10% more affordable simply due to price correction.

If homes become more affordable, sales volume will increase, and the affordability cycle begins again.

So, if history rhymes, we’re not setting up for another collapse — but rather for the first signs of a thaw in 2026.